A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
